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Source link: http://archive.mises.org/8791/keynes-would-have-seen-it-coming/

Keynes Would Have Seen It Coming

October 16, 2008 by

Or so we read in the Washington Post. Austrian business cycle theory is studiously avoided, of course, and “animal spirits” are back.

We get one paragraph about the Japanese stagnation of the 1990s, but no acknowledgment at all that none of the Keynesian tools accomplished a thing.

Have at this one, commenters.

{ 33 comments }

J. Chris Folsom October 16, 2008 at 12:05 pm

What do you expect? It’s the Washington Post. Since when has it ever been anything more that a sewer pipe of fascist propaganda?

Do you think that these people are stupid? Do you think that Keynes was stupid? Do you think that the people who run these Mockingbird operations at the major media outlets are stupid? Do you think that Bernanke or Greenspan are stupid?

None of this is a mistake. It is the cold and ruthless execution of a carefully contrived plan to destroy what is left of freedom worldwide.

It’s time to wake up and realize that we are being attacked by an international conspiracy that wants to enslave the entire world, and its not going to get any better as long as people continue to wallow in their psychotic fantasies.

Steve Hogan October 16, 2008 at 12:07 pm

Sorry, but I’m allergic to the mainstream press. Show me something from the Post, the NYT, or the Wall Street Journal and I am likely to break out in hives.

The media has always been clueless about economics, and they always will be. I can no longer tolerate their willful ignorance about the simplest of economic principles. It’s best to avoid them altogether. Keeps my blood pressure under control too.

Jeffrey Tucker October 16, 2008 at 12:09 pm

Skidelsky has to argue that we’ve lived amidst unregulated capitalism in order to suggest that Keynes has the answers. Of course he feels no need to prove that. He only needs to assert it. Of course he is also famous for arguing that Keynes was a classical liberal. See Raico for the answer to this claim http://www.independent.org/pdf/tir/tir_13_02_1_raico.pdf

Mike October 16, 2008 at 12:14 pm

Yes, we should all listen to someone who says WWII got us out of the Great Depression. Sheesh

Stephen Austra-Beck October 16, 2008 at 12:19 pm

I wonder if Krugman will be a key note speaker at “Betton Woods 2008?”

Yuck. The revival of Fabian socialism is at hand.

http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/1016/p01s02-wogn.html

J. Chris Folsom October 16, 2008 at 12:29 pm

>> Yuck. The revival of Fabian socialism is at hand.

I didn’t realize it was dead. Sure looks alive and well to me.

Stephen Austra-Beck October 16, 2008 at 12:45 pm

Indeed, Mr Folsom. I’ve been in a state of semi-denial.

Kevin M October 16, 2008 at 1:00 pm

To reply to Mr. Folsom, I believe I shall bring up an old quote.

“Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.”

Is there a global conspiracy to take away our rights? I doubt it.

Are these gentleman doing just that with their self-aggrandizement and governmental self-heroism? Yes.

Mike October 16, 2008 at 1:05 pm

Here’s an older phrase: cui bono

jeff October 16, 2008 at 1:19 pm

The Great Financial Meltdown would not have surprised the British economist, who died in 1946, for he thought that this was exactly how unregulated markets would behave.

Good to know we have Unregulated Markets!

magnus@fortius.com October 16, 2008 at 1:24 pm

Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.

I operate on the reverse principle — never attribute to stupidity that which can be explained by malice.

Remember that a sufficiently well-developed incompetence is indistinguishable from malice. Particularly when the fool in question is paid to know better.

I’m with Mr. Folsom. It’s a conspiracy, albeit the most poorly-concealed conspiracy in history.

Brent October 16, 2008 at 1:28 pm

“Have at this one, commenters.”

You said it was the Washington Post. What more can be said?

Bill October 16, 2008 at 1:42 pm

Actually guys…Peter Schiff gets an op ed. Strange times indeed. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/15/AR2008101503166.html

Bill October 16, 2008 at 1:44 pm

Actually guys…Peter Schiff gets an op ed. Strange times indeed. The socialists (self-described) are apoplectic in the comments http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/15/AR2008101503166.html

Ron@TheWisdomJournal October 16, 2008 at 2:01 pm

“The Great Financial Meltdown would not have surprised the British economist, who died in 1946, for he thought that this was exactly how unregulated markets would behave.”

Is there a more regulated market than the financial industry? When did these supposedly unregulated markets exist?

J. Chris Folsom October 16, 2008 at 2:08 pm

So what’s the next step?

Book 'em Danno October 16, 2008 at 3:38 pm

J. Chris Folsom,

I wonder about ‘what to do next’ often now too. I do not want to be relegated like the Old Right and have to suffer the underdog position. There is the saying “Too late to change the system, too early to shoot ‘em”. But I think this statement, although funny, is a little off base:

First, the system needs to be thrown out, not changed. Secondly, it might be too late to “shoot ‘em” because they have got too much firepower and general ideological agreement. Thirdly, what would violence do to the future prospect of change advocated by those associated with mises.org?

Anyway, shooting these tyrants is just too good for them.

At the heart of this war- and it is a war- is an ideological battle in which patient persuasion is the key to victory. Sometimes I wonder if this movement needs a charismatic leader, messianic even- like a Martin Luther King etc. Or is that being pessimistic?

But I ask the question in earnest too. What to do now? Damn if I should live under yet more tyranny!

Bruce Koerber October 16, 2008 at 4:03 pm

The Keynesian imp that wrote the above mentioned article forgot what Keynes himself said “We’re all dead in the long-run.”

Keynes would not have seen ‘it coming’ because ‘it’ is merely the economic meltdown of the Keynesian long-run.

John Maynard Keynes was an economic charatan and a panderer to the political class. His secret love affair with socialism is evident in his ‘theory’ which is devoid of any understanding of capital or capital structure.

If alive today Keynes would act like Paul Krugman, completely oblivious of the real world yet decorating himself with the bells and whistles being showered upon him by the clueless and corrupt. Keynes and Krugman are the heros of the ego-driven interventionists.

Ron Paul and Ludwig von Mises are the heros of the righteous!

J. Chris Folsom October 16, 2008 at 4:32 pm

Danno,

I agree that violence is not the answer. That seems to just play into more tyranny. I suspect there is nothing that Bush or Obama would enjoy more than letting the military loose on the civilian population.

I think there are plenty of opportunities for changing things for the better though. The key to cognitive therapy is cognitive dissonance. Here are some things to try for a week:

Engage everyone you meet in political conversation especially @ grocery stores, gas stations, etc. since these types of places generally have a broad demographic. Never walk away from a conversation without saying something that confronts a false belief or blows their mind.

Roll down your window in traffic and ask the person next to you:

“Excuse me, but did you know that the Federal Reserve System is a criminal cartel?”

If everyone did this the pyramid of lies would collapse in short order. IMHO, the most powerful enemy that freedom faces is taboo.

As far as having a messiah for freedom, I think to a great extent that it is a contradiction in terms. Sure, there are lots of people who deserve great respect and have made great contributions, but mobs displaying blind devotion to a figurehead seems antithetical to freedom.

“A disciple is an asshole looking for a human being to attach itself to.” – Robert Anton Wilson

Russ October 16, 2008 at 5:34 pm

I am new, as in the last month, to the Austrain school. I have a strong mathematical background and find positives in the other schools of thought. However, I find that the Austrian school is where to start for understanding the concepts…and I mean REALLY understanding.

The one thing that I don’t like, I am an officer the military by the way, is that all of the comments in these stories turn nasty almost as soon as the stories are posted. Thanks for thinking I would be “turned loose on the civilian population,” but I know how to restrain myself unlike some of the the insightful fellows who have posted comments here.

If you want to spread understanding for Austrain theory, which I think is outstanding, backing away from the hateful comments would be a good place to start. It is forcing me to ignore the proponents and stick to the writings. Why should I discuss my thoughts or ask for your help in understanding when those posting here are angry and insecure?

N. Joseph Potts October 16, 2008 at 6:57 pm

Russ -
I’m a former military officer myself. You have to admit that anger AND insecurity are justified not just by recent events but by the general trend of them these recent years.

There are reasons why some of these emotions focus on the military, and as you delve into Austro-libertarian writings, you won’t fail to notice it: the government couldn’t do things like what it has done lately if it didn’t hold a monopoly on (among other things) the legal use of force. The government writ is law, and if you want to know what that means, just refuse to pay your taxes. You’ll be staring down the barrel of a gun before you know it.

As George Washington said, government is force, and ultimately, the force comes from its standing military (use of which domestically is supposedly ruled out by posse comitatus, of which Alexander Hamilton, for one, certainly never heard).

Much anger and insecurity arises in knowledgeable people because of the government’s military, and your being (an uncommonly insightful) member OF the military does anything BUT exempt you from sharing such a reaction for your own part, as you know.

Try not to consider yourself personally the object of these feelings, however – there’s much reason for you and the rest of us to understand that you actually should not be.

Book 'em Danno October 16, 2008 at 7:00 pm

J. Chris Folsom,

I already terrorize, or bore to death, local town folk via commenting in their online newspaper. Admittedly, I do get asked ‘What does the Federal Reserve have to do with the church bake sale on Saturday?’ but at least I get their attention…

I also quit a job working for the No Child Left Behind Act and, point by point, let my boss know why. It was a Gogol moment with people talking past each other.

On the messiah thing I read you. We don’t need no Jim Jones. But many find strength in Jesus. This is a giant topic.

Good reply.

J. Chris Folsom October 16, 2008 at 7:40 pm

Russ,

The comment wasn’t even directed at the military, or members of the military, but just a note about the general tendency of dictators.

I am a former member of the military myself. I was simply stating that tyrants have a penchant for falling back on violence to suppress populations when all else fails. The Statists have shown their ready ability to slaughter people in the hundreds of millions without the slightest concern, is there any evidence to suggest that they have limits to what they would do or how far they would go for power?

“Let us not deceive ourselves, sir. These are the implements of war and subjugation; the last arguments to which kings resort.” – Patrick Henry

Russ October 16, 2008 at 8:20 pm

Thank you all for your replies and your carefully selected words. I am a firm believer that the words we choose and how we use them is of vital importance.

I do understand that the comment was not aimed at me or the military as a whole, but the abuse or potential abuse of the military. I am also a student of history and regret those times where the military either willingly or by lack of courage has engaged in tyrannical pursuits.

My larger point was that I have found the anger on this site and in these postings to be a detractor from the great number of lessons I have learned by reading everything I can get my hands on about Austrian economics.

For a group of intelligent and reasoned men and women, the tone quickly becomes one akin to a teenager that mom and dad will not listen to.

I was pointing out that it is a shame and I was trying to understand its origin. I assume it is out of the lack of acceptance by main stream economics or frustration over being repeatedly proven correct, yet unheeded. If I am wrong, please educate me.

Former Austrian October 16, 2008 at 8:52 pm

Apparently we have unregulated markets, and praxeology has been discredited in practice…I’m going to have to start relearning everything again now…

Ed October 16, 2008 at 9:20 pm

Russ,
A great deal of the angst on this site also comes from fear. Feeling like a trapped rat with no place to go. I for one am petrified on a daily basis of the things I see happening to our country, and fear makes people say crazy things. Oddly enough I was expressing the opinion about a week ago that if the military were ordered against the civilian population many would refuse. A friend of mine who recently returned from Iraq told me I shouldn’t be so sure about that. For my own sake I’m sticking to my own opinion.

Alvaro October 16, 2008 at 9:34 pm

I live far away so not many know the details around here…

I must tell you, I have had lots of amusement watching people’s faces while I tell them in one minute about the community reinvestment act and Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac.

They get the impression that the system was rigged to fail.

Of course I always mention that the money was provided by the same circus that provides it today: FEDZILLA.

Dean October 17, 2008 at 1:07 am

Russ,

I think you are right in saying that the words we choose are very important, and glad that your posting reminds us of that.

Nevertheless, this IS the open internet, and expression of emotions is as important as remembering to restrain them. It’s all part of the balance we arrive at together through diversity…

Dean October 17, 2008 at 1:07 am

Russ,

I think you are right in saying that the words we choose are very important, and glad that your posting reminds us of that.

Nevertheless, this IS the open internet, and expression of emotions is as important as remembering to restrain them. It’s all part of the balance we arrive at together through diversity…

Haas October 17, 2008 at 10:43 am

All you guys asking “what do we do next?” the question is simple- there has only been one solution, massive uprisings- you can have a peaceful uprising by mobilising million which will be impossible with the ignorance of 99% of the population or you can have a violent one… lets be honest here we need to use some kind of force to change things- unfortunately force never comes up as a solution until the damage has been done and people are forced to finally wake up…and most of us here will just be debating the technicalities of austrian economics on these blogs pretending that intellectual debate will solve everything by itself…

Ian October 18, 2008 at 4:56 pm

Well I think you guys are really being entirely to nice to Russ. I think it is chickenshit for someone to use their “service” as a reason to quiet down dissent. I have been out of the Army now for two years. Infantry and Special Forces and it makes me sick I put so much effort into that lifestyle. I joined for adventure and live with shame for what I found in my adventuring. I am embarrassed to no end by what the military does by not standing up for the Constitution it is sworn to defend.

I see these generals and hear these admirals and they speak in glowing terms about our boys and girls doing what is right and being in the right. Nothing could be farther from the truth. Now I do not harbor ill feelings towards those people in the military still today, they are just plain ignorant. Almost all of my friends are still in, I only hope they wise up and get out while the getting is good.

And if you think for a minute our boys and girls would not light up on a group of civilians they were told were bad, you are crazy. They would do it, and not feel a hint of shame about it afterwords. The conscience has been cleansed from far to many, and I find it highly unlikely some chair polisher would ever say no, when ordered to assault or kill americans.

So Russ, I can only hope you wise up and resign your commission. What you think you are defending is a lie, there is no freedom to defend by killing people “over there”. You have seen them as I have I am sure. They are a sorry lot of people who do not deserve, nor want what we are dishing out. Your efforts, on top of mine and all my friends and the rest of those “serving” are really only destroying freedom while a bunch of money changers pocket blood soaked federal reserve notes.

Barbarossa October 21, 2008 at 10:20 am

First off, I like the idea posted earlier by J. Chris Folsom. Most people in this country are walking zombies, and the only way to stop them is to blow their brains, metaphorically speaking of course. Taboos and political correctness are (it should be needless to say) antithetical to free speech and, more importantly, free thinking, the loss of the latter leading invariably to the loss of the former. Charlton Heston described political correctness as “tyranny with manners,” and I simply call it “horseshit.” People whom I encounter in my daily life who consider talking about politics “inappropriate” I absolutely despise; what could be more important to your life? People like that are brainwashed and not free-thinking (despite, I’m sure, their claims to “open-mindedness”) and only serve to perpetuate the system, like the slaves they are. And there is nothing wrong with anger; it’s a healthy reaction to an unhealthy situation, and oftentimes where appeals to reason fail anger is the only thing that the zombified can understand. I also agree with Ian. Being in the military is not a way to deflect criticism about the military in a conversation; it’s irrelevant, and even saying that makes your intentions suspect. I’m an American and proud to be one, but I ceaselessly criticize this country, its citizenry, and its government. And of course the military is a danger. Duh. It’s amazing the fanciful notions people have. Some of you may not be versed in history to the extent that I am, so I will share with you an obscure historical example akin to our own. At one point this little province called “Germany” was ruled by this group called the “Nazis,” who used the country’s military against its own people, in a supposedly “civilized” country where that could never happen. If soldiers can be duped into fighting a bogus war on Iraqis, they can be fooled into fighting a bogus war on Americans. The spin will take the liars in our government just a few extra minutes to concoct.

Kurghen October 27, 2008 at 1:07 pm

I may be overly pessimistic but I think the idea of educating individuals is simply impossible in the face of government control of schools and 90 years of incremental socialism. Can anyone identify a democracy in history that reversed course and stopped the politically influenced inflation and currency manipulation that was destroying them?

In my opinion, the die was cast when the “Progressives” in 1913 consolidated Lincoln’s expansion of Federal power and dismantled key republican institutions like the state’s selection of national senators, the creation of the “Federal” Reserve and the imposition of an income tax.

Interesting experiment…ask your friends and associates to concisely explain the difference between a republic and a democracy. Graduates of public schools will simply go into vapor lock…

The key question for me is whether any democracy in history has every been able to transition back to limited government without going through a complete fiscal collapse. If not, why do we think the US will face any different outcome?

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