Losing 34%+ when the American market is losing much more than that?

Pointing to what was clearly and accurately predicted head fake in the dollar due to misguided attempts to prop it up as the world knee jerks to what they “thought” was a safe haven.

I’m glad I was able to catch on so late in hopes that someone picks up on this interview/article and replies back now that we’ve had some hindsight on Peter’s economic predictions.

I posted a comment on your blog post, but I thought I’d add my contribution here as well.

In what I’ve read of Schiff’s point of view, I don’t think he’s being disingenuous about currency inflation. His greater point is that the “recovery” of the dollar on that graph is artificial, being supported by foreign countries. They are all still working to prop up the dollar. He says, often enough, that if they give up on the dollar, we will see the inevitable dollar collapse.

In other words, when he says 12 months isn’t enough, he means that the rest of the world hasn’t given up on the dollar in the last 12 months .

His perspective is largely influenced by his Austrian School views. He’s banking on the principles, ultimately. In a sense, he doesn’t need data for himself. He’s not an academic, he’s a real investor. Time will tell if he is right.

For my full review of Schiff’s book please go to http://soyouthinkyoucaninvest.blogspot.com/2009/04/peter-schiff-little-book-of-bull-moves.html

so in about six hundred years
after i have worked for eight bucks an hour
and saved a dollar a month
we can get one then

I wonder how the children and i will be feeling then
I dont have a job
I dont have a truck
I do have people saying I am lazy
I do have people saying all single parents are welfare bums

I am up at five all summer long
running a market garden
that our local people wont even buy from
It makes me sick
and I hope they starve

so in about six hundred years
after i have worked for eight bucks an hour
and saved a dollar a month
we can get one then

I wonder how the children and i will be feeling then
I dont have a job
I dont have a truck
I do have people saying I am lazy
I do have people saying all single parents are welfare bums

I am up at five all summer long
running a market garden
that our local people wont even buy from
It makes me sick
and I hope they starve

A Martian visting a Walmart store, having been previously introduced only to the writings of one recent Earthian economist, Peter Schiff, would have to conclude as follows:

China has the most free enterprise, capitalist, Austrian school inspired economy in the World.

America has the most socialist, anti free market, Marxist inspired economy in the World.

Everything he says about the US economy seems to be right. Although I am not an economist, I have had the same predictions and am finding confirmations in what he is saying.

However, my take on this guy gets very sceptical as soon as he gets to his sales pitch, which he inevitably does in almost any interview (it’s annoying).

His pitch is that he can help invest money in such a way as not to lose on this collapse of the US economy. I must say that having seen what was coming, I still found it hard to invest for profit (I have only been able to limit my loss).

The only viable investment strategy in Poland (where I live) that I could come up with was a short sell; and this is an economy that is doing extremely well in this part of the world.

To put it bluntly, Mr. Schiff has it right on the nose on what is wrong to do (stay in dollars), but he seems to have no clue on what is the right thing to do, because “not dollars” isn’t such a safe bet either. His “helping hand” pitch seems to me very arrogant and to hold no substancial benefit, except to himself.

I have been able to come up with only one positive net gain strategy, and that is to invest in products or services that make production or delivery of service more efficient. This, in essence, is what makes an economy grow. But to invest in this well, you need to intimately know who you entrust with your money.

His only advice to the people he is purporting to help through his brokerage is to invest in sound moneymaking businesses that are not in America. But then, why would you want to entrust an American with such a job?

someone else who at least has correctly understood the austrian insights (ok, he got inflation right) is steve saville (check him out @ safehaven.com).

apart from being unfashionably bearish when others were bullish (all credit to him, but stephan roach @ morgan stanley was bearish for years for the wrong reasons), schiff’s got some very kooky ideas about investing and economics, as preceding bloggers have pointed out.

warren buffett and george soros are proof that you can be hopelessly wrong in economics and still make out like kings as investors/punters.

1. The US will be doing Asia a massive favour if it stops importing their goods because it has no money to pay for them.

2. Spiralling debt and printing money is what will destroy the US economy and devalue the dollar.

3. His point is price rises are the result of inflation not the cause of it.