This article from the Atlanta Journal-Constitution quotes me on the subject of war and the economy.
I got the impression during our conversation that the author understood the traditional what-is-seen and what-is-not-seen argument I made, yet anyone walking away from this article would probably conclude that war really is a nice if unfortunate source of stimulus.
I do object to this characterization of what I said: “The idea that war is an economic stimulus is especially suspect if the economy is already in decent shape, said Thomas Woods Jr….” I never said any such thing; whether the economy is in decent shape or lousy shape, war is not a boon, period.
Also, the direct monetary costs of wars, even if relatively small compared to the economy’s output, conceal other, typically hidden costs, as I argue here (.pdf).



{ 10 comments }
Thomas_E._Woods, it’s unfortunate that they misquoted you, but the quote doesn’t say you think war can be a boon; it just says you think the “war = stimulus” claim is *more* supsect (than it usually is), when the economy is in good shape. Although I agree it’s worded so that you’ve hedged your position on the current state of the economy, which is misleading.
I would know what it’s like for others to attribute positions to me that I don’t hold. For example, someone here likes to keep saying that I think no IP would mean no production of intellectual works ever, even though I’ve never said that and in fact believe that’s garbage.
Yes, I know. My point is simply that nowhere in our conversation did I say that. I never said the thesis was more suspect than it usually is when the economy is already in good shape. I never said anything like that.
You go far too easy on Kanell’s article. It appears that he doesn’t even know there exists such a thing as economic law.
Consider the following absolutely incoherent and illiterate statements:
“Military spending pumps up profits; pulls employees out of jobs and into uniforms, providing paychecks for thousands of other workers; pours money into research; and pushes the nation deeper into debt.”
“Huge outlays by the government — especially when the money is borrowed — are generally expected to stimulate growth. If the economy’s resources and employees are already being used efficiently, the added spending sparks inflation.
Vietnam spending — paired with President Lyndon Johnson’s refusal to cut his domestic programs — is often blamed for kindling inflation that bedeviled the economy for the next decade.
Many economists think globalization has helped prevent a repeat of that outcome: A worldwide labor market keeps wages lower; cheap imports lower commodity prices.
Meanwhile, the debt behind war spending is snapped up by foreign buyers of hundreds of billions of dollars in bonds and notes. That helps keep long-term interest rates low.”
And consider here how, after he quotes Mr. Woods, Kanell falls right into the very mistake of looking at what is seen to the detriment of what is not seen.
“‘The reason nobody notices [the negative impact of opportunity costs] is that you can’t see it. I can’t see the houses not being built. I can’t see the computer innovation not being made. The costs are largely invisible,’ he [Woods] said.
Still, war spending looks like a good thing at Suwanee’s Firearms Training Systems. The firm, with 325 workers, has been growing at about 15 percent a year while roughly 95 percent of its revenue comes from military customers.”
—————-
What is this man smoking?
Nothing new under the sun!
It’s true that those who will lose by the increased resource use in defense sector will be diverse group and monetary loss per person could be very small.
But those who gain from increased defense spending get very large subsidies and it’s rational for them to lobby for more. They can easily find out succes stories and say that all beneficial things comes from increased spending. Actually it’s true that for them way to prosperity is others to spend money 24/7.
This journalist was just pointing to those success stories…
The largest single site employer in Georgia is an Air Force depot.
There are many defense contractors.
Then you have the bases.
Opportunity cost to them is a danger to many jobs.
I see no reason an Atlanta based journalist should be kind to the idea that defense industry and related spending could be better spent elsewhere.
Worse, it would be taken as unfriendly to imply all those good, steady jobs were in a parasitic industry as Seymour Melman might.
I really feel for you full time Austrian Economists who have to make a living arguing against this foolishness. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution article gives me a part time Austrian a headache.
You can just feel the author fighting against his feelings and what he has been programmed with since being a baby. You can feel the logic bumping into the emotion.
I favor the broken window analogy instead of the seen vs unseen. I describe this as you break a window and you need all the human and capital machinery to buy a new one. But if you take the money that would be spent on a window and buy a grill then you have both the grill and window.
Yes, I gave him the broken window example. Apparently did no good.
I think we should cut the journalist some slack. After all, the rocket scientist at Syracuse (who is apparently a professional economist) repeated the spending=growth mantra.
I grant that the guy shouldn’t have “helped” Tom by making his position more mainstream, but he probably wasn’t even aware he was doing it.
I think this is a good example where you have to be aware of your audience, in this case the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
I know you’re not a politician, but when trying to posit a counter-argument I think one has to keep on message rather than trying to get someone to understand an issue more deeply.
The implied question is: Is there a down-side to war. Your answer is YES, and this is why… Perhaps best to provide a concrete example on where resources did NOT end up (hopefully in a manner which suggests Atlantans were ultimately screwed), then say this is an example of opportunity costs which aren’t apparent in policy discussions.
I don’t know how the interview went, but we all have to keep our heads up. Every politician does this homework before being interviewed so he can say what people want to hear. I don’t have the reference at hand, but when Reagan was interviewed by some libertarian-leaning publication he said good things about Hayek even though I highly doubt he read his work.
In Atlanta, Macon and Augusta Ga, a cut in defense spending is a real issue.
The Chevy dealer in Macon, outside the big air depot, is on speaking terms with the US congressman, as well as the two senators.
Sam Nunn is from Perry Ga which is a few miles away.
A cut in defense spending might mean fewer Chevrolets sold in Macon.
Comments on this entry are closed.