“World oil production will not begin to fall for at least another 24 years, contrary to doomsday theories that supply is already in terminal decline, a prominent energy consulting group said Tuesday.
“Cambridge Energy Research Associates said in a report that the world has some 3.74 trillion barrels of oil left -- enough to last 122 years at current consumption rates and triple the amount estimated by ‘peak oil’ theorists...
“’Oil is too critical to the global economy to allow fear to replace careful analysis about the very real challenges with delivering liquid fuels to meet the needs of growing economies,’ said Peter Jackson, director of oil industry activity for Cambridge, a Massachusetts-based consultant to the oil, natural gas and electric power industries.
“They said the peak in global daily oil production will not come before 2030 and will be followed not by a steep decline, but rather by an ‘undulating plateau’ of ups and downs in output before a gradual dropoff, according to the report.
“Jackson said the main flaw in ‘peak oil’ theory is that it fails to account for exploration, technology, rising estimates of the size of existing fields and geopolitical shifts...
“’The peak’s been called on many occasions, and dates come and go without any scientific explanation,’ Jackson said in a teleconference to discuss the report, Why the ‘Peak Oil’ Theory Falls Down: Myths, Legends, and the Future of Oil Resources.
“Actual production has exceeded ‘peak oil’ predictions by 15 billion barrels in the United States alone, and such contrary data has caused advocates of the idea to keep shifting the predicted peak year into the future, Jackson said.
“’In doing this, they’re proving the opposite of what they’re suggesting,’ Jackson said.”
