They don’t draw the right conclusions but at least some of them have been humbled a touch: “Economists’ missed trends may indicate sea change” (Knight Ridder Tribune News):
Whether it’s policy gurus like Alan Greenspan at the Federal Reserve or academic theorists like free-trade champion Jeffrey Sachs of Columbia University, economists are widely viewed as people who can divine where society needs to go and discern how to get there. But that blind faith has been shaken by recent trends that economists either missed or were wrong about. These include everything from the rise of outsourcing, the mammoth trade and federal deficits, and, perhaps most significantly, the drop in the dollar.
“Why have economic forecasts missed the mark so much?” said economist Steve Morrell of Barry University in Miami Shores, Fla. “I don’t have a good answer.”
{ 4 comments }
I don’t think that anyone views economists as “as people who can divine where society needs to go and discern how to get there.” I suggest that the reputation of the economics field is quite low in the public eye.
It was only because of the deification of Greenspan that there might have been a temporary rise in reputation. And most people don’t distinguish between economics as a science and economic forecasts. Of course, that might be a good thing if they were to look at the mathematical gobbledygook that passes for economic theory.
I will amend my previous comment…I don’t think that anyone views economists “as people who can divine where society needs to go and discern how to get there” except, perhaps, economists.
Prognosticating economists wouldn’t exist if there wasn’t a market for them! Its a fact of human nature that we hate uncertainty, and we yearn for someone to remove that uncertainty. Used to be the church fulfilled that function, now its economists.
But society evolves, and evolution is non-teleological, so no human mind can ever truly forecast. Alan Greenspan and Jeff Sachs are testimony to our self-deception.
Comments on this entry are closed.