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Source link: http://archive.mises.org/17191/clarity-on-unemployment/

Clarity on Unemployment

June 4, 2011 by

Here is how the picture looks according to official statistics, from the onset of the crisis to the present:


Bruce Koerber June 4, 2011 at 8:28 am

Empirical Economic Data Is Approaching Absurdity!

Look at this unemployment graph.

The lag time between collecting empirical economic data and then altering the collecting criteria is shown in the graph from the first quarter of 2008 to the second quarter of 2009.

The post-second-quarter 2009 portrayal shows the betrayal by the interpreters and the betrayal by the interventionists (quantitative easing schemes). Their lies and deceit betray all ethics and justice.

What these ignoramuses cannot fathom is the power of economic equilibrium which will cause the graph to climb rapidly again despite their ridiculous criteria, rendering it even more meaningless. At some point the empiricists will no longer be able to provide anything of value to the propagandists of the unConstitutional coup.

Inspector Ketchup June 4, 2011 at 11:15 am

But it’s okay, because at that point we will all be working for the military anyways.

Rob Mandel June 4, 2011 at 9:16 am

We’ll just have to wait for them to redefine unemployed just like they did with the CPI. Then that’ll solve everything and it will be back at “full” employment!! Now excuse me while I take a bite out of my iPad because I can’t afford to buy food :) :)

Jonathan M. F. Catalán June 4, 2011 at 11:05 am

Robert Higgs on what the real unemployment rate is: Will the Real Rate of Unemployment Please Stand Up.

Ohhh Henry June 4, 2011 at 10:21 am

An alternative representation of unemployment statistics is available here. It includes the discouraged workers who were “defined out of official existence” by the BLS in 1994.

Walt D. June 4, 2011 at 10:53 am

Here are the unfudged, U6 and U3 charts. Note the the unfudged unemployment rate is over 20%.
Note that the official U3 numbers do not count recent high school and college graduates who can not find work. They are not considered as “unemployed” since they were never “employed”.

Jeremy H. June 6, 2011 at 1:55 pm

“Note that the official U3 numbers do not count recent high school and college graduates who can not find work. They are not considered as “unemployed” since they were never “employed”.”

Source? I’m almost positive this is false.

Inspector Ketchup June 4, 2011 at 11:13 am

How about the underemployed and those who have stopped seeking employment, they are not accounted for in those statistics.

If instead we would make an underemployment statistic then the rate would be around 25%.

1 person out of 4 is either not working or not working enough.

Tony Fernandez June 4, 2011 at 2:30 pm
Walt D. June 4, 2011 at 3:07 pm

How can you get unfudged unemployment statistics?
Look at Federal Government Receipts – FICA. This is both the employer and employee Social Security and Medicare receipts. If you look at this time series, it has been heading down. This is hard to fudge, since people who are not actually working do not pay FICA. (Neither do the employers who are not employing them ! :-) ). This is a double whammy, since many elderly people who were working, lost their jobs and were unable to find work have now opted for early retirement. Now, there are more entitlements going out than taxes coming in. No more raiding Social Security to provide a “Clinton Surplus”.

Mike D. June 4, 2011 at 7:10 pm

FICA receipts are also misleading.
The only area where jobs are actually growing are government jobs. Many of these jobs pay over $100,000. So both the employer and the employee contribute the maximum. Since all this money comes from the employer (the government) where does this money come from? It is borrowed by the federal government (then some of it is lent to state and local government). So a good portion of FICA receipts are borrowed.

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