I came across The Book of Predictions, dated 1980, at the library. It was a compilation of predictions for the 1980s, 1990s, and beyond from dozens of academics, scientists, and even psychics, and it included this contribution from Murray Rothbard:
1982–1992
- Accelerating inflation, punctuated by recession; increasing flight from the dollar; even higher gold prices; permanently stagnation in stock market.
- Higher taxes, crippled productivity and savings. Accelerated decay in the urban centers of the Northeast. A return to rent control with resulting shortage of apartments and decay in the quality of housing.
- Accelerated increase in military spending, with ever greater and more frequent alarms of tyranny all over the globe, and increasingly ineffective attempts by the US to police and mold the entire world according to its heart’s desire.
- Establishment of national health insurance, with consequent great increase in taxes, spending, and inflation, and a shortage of medical care and decline in its quality.
- Slow deregulation of businesses, to the accompaniment of a great deal of squawking by the cartelized industries being regulated (in the case of FCC, CAB, ICC, etc.) and squawking by the environmentalists and liberals (OSHA, environmental protection, etc.).
- Tighter controls on energy, in the form of price controls, import quotas, and taxes, bringing about higher prices and shortages.
1993–2030
By the early 1990s a “backlash” by the public, by intellectuals, and by the media will take place, against the statism that has governed America since the 1930s (more precisely, since 1900). There will be a triumph of libertarian ideologies, institutions, and policies on every front in American life. Specifically:
- Inflation will be ended by the separation of government from money; by the abolition of the Federal Reserve System; and by the return to a gold standard fully backing the dollar. This will be followed by a return to the gold standard by all the world’s governments, bringing the chaotic nature of the international monetary system to an end. Taxes will be cut drastically across the board, on the federal, state, and local levels, and we will return to the idea that individuals, groups, and organizations should take care of their own affairs or voluntarily help each other. A huge number of government “services,” now performed badly if at all, will be returned to the private sector, with much greater attention to consumer needs. As a result, there will be a great burst in creative energies by the American people and in the American economy, with a large number of new products, industries, and technological marvels.
- Industries will be deregulated rapidly and across the board. Energy will be freed at last and will become cheaper and more abundant, and government land, hoarded off the market, will be opened up to production.
- We will finally realize that attempting to police the globe is harmful and counterproductive, and we will finally concentrate once again on our own defense, which will require enormously smaller military outlays. And we will finally abandon the remnants of the Prohibitionist mentality and stop trying to outlaw goods and services that other people find enjoyable. In short, the 1990s will bring freedom and therefore peace, prosperity, and creativity.
{ 8 comments }
well, he called the backlash for sure, but much of the rest of the program here still awaits.
Murray *did* give us until 2030…
Makes me want to put down the cigars & the Makers Mark for about 18 yrs so I can see what the world will look like!!
That’s good news. I might live to see what not being regulated into the ground feels like
The reason why the 1980s were not as bad as Rothbard predicted was because of Ronald Reagan. Reagan passed a few insignificant reforms that enabled statism to survive for longer. In another world, either Bush or Carter would have been elected in 1980 and we would have gotten all that Rothbard predicted in the 1980s.
Reagan saved big government in the 1980s. In the 1990s, Bill Clinton took office and enacted the Cultural Marxist revolution while mostly leaving Reagan’s reforms alone. If there had been no political will to cut tax rates, stop the Fed from inflating, and somewhat reduce government interference with energy production, we would have faced economic disaster in the 1980s. Socialization of health care would have happened in the 1970s had Nixon not been impeached and probably would have happened in the 1980s had there been no Reagan Revolution. In the 1990s, it would have happened if there was no Republican Revolution in 1994. Today, health care will be socialized unless the 5 conservatives on the Supreme Court decide to reject commerce clause precedents and repeal the Obama health care law (I’m actually optimistic that they will).
I’m hopeful that we can bring about a more libertarian America by peaceful means through the electoral process (this depends, however, on taking over the Republican Party). However, I recognize that if slight reforms are made, that has the potential to “save” this system and delay its inevitable demise. The alternative path would be to bide our time and wait until the system collapses (this strategy depends upon the existence of a large cadre of radical libertarian activists that will be ready when our opportunity arrives). As long as we have a Mises Institute and it remains uncorrupted, we should have a significant number of libertarians to be able to influence a revolution whenever it happens (I recommend reading Rothbard’s strategic insights, as I believe his strategy is being vindicated by the events in Egypt, where the Muslim Brotherhood will likely gain power soon).
I very much agree. States can persist indefinitely as long as they muddle around back and forth enough to keep major industries from totally imploding. As long as there is some sector of the economy free enough to make imports possible (electronics, in our present case) then the state will be able to afford continued operation.
Robert Higgs has made a similar argument, they can scale things back when they get too chaotic and, sometimes, they have the sentience to do it.
“the separation of government from money” is underway
bitcoin.org
en.bitcoin.it
To the guy who said we have until “2030″, get your head out of Nostradamus’ style mumblings. The future is not certain.
Comments on this entry are closed.