Source link: http://archive.mises.org/14297/industrial-production-index-is-falling-again/
Industrial Production Index is Falling Again
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Here comes the double dip. Anyone surprised?
Someone remind me what happened in April/May ’09 that caused the hairpin turn? Was it stimulus #2? Any particular reason it held the same rate of increase for almost exactly 18 months?
Come on now, a one-month dip is indicative of a trend? Take a look at 2002-2008. Lots of one- or two-month dips which reversed. Or take a look at any expansion in the full series:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/INDPRO
This site has really fallen into the doom-and-gloom camp. Time to reread some Julian Simon.
Nope, it’s not enough data to indicate a trend, but it’s what we’ve been waiting to see, given the large amounts of money spent on worthless cures for the recession. Plus, one of the advantages of smug pessimism is that you win either way. If I’m wrong, well, then the economy gets better and I’m pleasantly surprised. If I’m right, I can take comfort in having seen it coming.
I had a quick look through the source PDF document and it doesn’t appear that the index uses real dollars (adjusted for inflation), although it apparently uses such an obscure formula that I have no idea of what is really being measured. Evidently for decades and decades, mathematically gifted people have wasted their lives creating and refining these statistics, which in the end are nothing but a bunch of fairly meaningless aggregates piled on top of one another with God-knows-what purpose in mind. Talk about a lost generation.
It also doesn’t seem to account for US population growth. If the “Production Index” was corrected for CPI or better yet ShadowStats alternate inflation rate or perhaps Austrian true money supply, and for population growth, I wonder if anyone would be quibbling or fussing over tiny changes in inflection from month to month. They might only amount to speed bumps on the highway to hell.
Yeah a two month dip is not enough to say its a trend, that’s going a tad over-board. I don’t think a double dip is on the horizon. I don’t wantto be a Pollyanna, but I wish people would allow a little optimism to enter into the equation every now and then. Who reports the two month increases? You never read about those!
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