It is now official–the recession is over. A group of academic economists from the National Bureau of Economic Research have declared that the longest recession since the Great Depression ended in June 2009. We have heard a great deal lately from various economists and pundits that there will be no double dip recession. A double dip recession is one where growth in GDP turns negative shortly after a few quarters of positive growth in GDP. Given that there has been little improvement in the economy since last June it is a relatively gutsy call by the NBER “dating committee.” A quick review of the Markets and Data page on Mises.org reveals that most data series have shown little or no improvement, except those that indicate higher inflation and fear.
Source link: http://archive.mises.org/13951/the-recession-is-over/
The recession is over
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This is the funniest thing I’ve heard today.
Why funny? All they are saying is the economy has stabilized at 10% unemployment. It is not getting worse.
Which means the recession is over? lol
Does NBER create a moral hazard that contributes to bad policy? Everyone knows that the technical reasons for calling an end to the recession were mostly generated by crazed spending interventions. The NBER ends up blessing those short-term policies with these kinds of announcements, however fictitious their basis.
For the most part, I think most people have become suspicious of government reports on the economy. I’m pretty sure most people have a feeling that things aren’t normal. Banks aren’t lending and businesses aren’t hiring. No one is being duped by this report. Thankfully.
Oh, ye with great faith.
Someone tell all those people out of work or underemployed that the recession is over. They can stop being unemployed and underemployed now. No point in keeping up the act.
“…except those that indicate higher inflation and fear.”
Funny.
Terrifying, but funny.
Thanks, Mark!
Empirical rubbish anyone?
The good news is that more people no who Snooki is, or who won American Idol, than know who Harry Reid is, or John Boehner is. Most people no longer read the newspaper or watch the news. Most people will not even hear this nonsense, and most of those who do will not believe it. I hazard a guess that the only people who will believe it are those who want to believe.
Who is Snooki and what is American Idol?
In the US, there are TV reality shows. Jay Leno, who hosts a late night talk show did a skit where he interviews people on the street. He will ask people questions about politicians and most people will not recognize the names. However, everyone knows who Lindsay Lohan is, who Paris Hilton is, who Snooki is, who Clint Eastwood is, who all the reality show stars are, and everything down to the finest detail. On the other hand, very few knew who was the Vice President, the Senate Majority Leader – most people knew who is governor of California.
Snooki is a star on the TV show JerseyShores. American Idol is a reality TV show. Don’t tell me you don’t know who Simon Cowell is!
I don’t have much tolerance for Jay. Whole bunch of the late night buffoons are cowards, showing their true colors.
Merciless skits on Bush II, implying he was, literally and I mean literally, a mentally deficient dolt (redundant, I know) who spent his time spinning around on a playground ride (ever see that one?)
But now that the empty suit took the stage, Jay spends time inviting shills on, to defend the man who never produced anything.
Wow, I defend Bush twice in one night… now THAT is scary!
Considering I 8-6′d television about three years ago, I am pretty much out of touch with random, pointless pop culture stuff.
Snooki I don’t know.
American Idol is the gameshow that’s run every two years, first Tuesday after the first Monday in November.
“Snooki I don’t know”
Franklin – I don’t think this is going to have a drastic effect on your quality of life! Not even worth Googling.
I wonder how John Williams at shadowstats will respond…
And who is Snooki?
“Given that there has been little improvement in the economy since last June it is a relatively gutsy call by the NBER ‘dating committee.’”
Or, one can reasonably come to the conclusion that the NBER’s announcement is politically motivated, given the upcoming elections and the apparent dissatisfaction of a sizeable portion of voters with the state of the economy. If enough people continue to hear positive economic news, even though its accuracy is highly questionable, maybe they will eventually believe the positive news and vote accordingly.
With that said, given the official definition of recession and the bias built into the statistics that the NBER and mainstream economics profession utilize in their analyses, the NBER is probably correct on its own terms, but these terms are not an accurate portrayal of the actual health of the economy.
There is no sunshine to illumine them where they are.
Awesome jedi mind trick. “Everything is fine. The economy is recovering.”
NBER: Chocolate rations have risen from 20 grams to 25 grams per week.
A double dip recession is one where growth in GDP turns negative shortly after a few quarters of positive growth in GDP.
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