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Source link: http://archive.mises.org/11071/a-pro-free-market-program-for-economic-recovery/

A Pro-Free-Market Program for Economic Recovery

November 20, 2009 by

The most important single step on the road to economic recovery is the establishment of a 100-percent reserve system against checking deposits. Ideally, the 100-percent reserve would be in gold. FULL ARTICLE by George Reisman

{ 369 comments }

Gerry Flaychy December 23, 2009 at 8:52 pm

Shay, I think that if you were a debtor of the bank, instead of a creditor, you should also consider the possibility to accumulate them up to the amount due to the bank, instead of getting rid of the ones that you already have, particulary if for any reason whatever, they are losing value relatively to the silver coins.

Mike Sproul December 23, 2009 at 11:53 pm

Gerry Flaychy:

Banks that don’t reveal their assets and liabilities will have a hard time attracting depositors.

“How could they know ?”

You might as well ask how people know what IBM stock is worth. People make their estimates and either bet on a rise or a fall. The ones who are right will gain, and the ones who are wrong will lose.

Beefcake the Mighty December 24, 2009 at 7:33 am

Comparing the appraisal of equity for a fractional-reserve bank is NOT the same
as it would be for a corporation like IBM, for the simple fact that, as already
pointed out, such banks can influence demand for their product in a way that
non-banking businesses cannot (simply through the will of the banks to inflate),
and consequently falsely boost the price (and apparent market value) of their
equity.  (Since again, market prices are determined by BOTH money and money
substitutes.)

I hope Santa Claus brings the RBD’ers a clue this year, but their reasoning
indicates they’ve been very, very bad boys and girls, so I’m not hopeful.

Gerry Flaychy December 24, 2009 at 8:27 am

Mike Sproul wrote: ” Banks that don’t reveal their assets and liabilities will have a hard time attracting depositors.

“How could they know ?”

You might as well ask how people know what IBM stock is worth. People make their estimates and either bet on a rise or a fall. The ones who are right will gain, and the ones who are wrong will lose.”

1- I don’t think that at the epoch where the banks were independant, bankers were publicising their balance sheets and thus show to everybody, especially their competitors, their weakness, unless they had a 100% reserve or very near. As you say, they would had a hard time attracting depositors ! But remark, even without depositors we can make loans: private lenders do that everyday. No need of a public balance sheet to make loans ! Believe me !

Even nowadays, with all the governmental bank supervisors, we cannot know for sure what the real financial situations of the banks are. And it seems that even the bankers don’t know it !

2- The majority of depositors at commercial banks don’t care about the balance sheets of the banks. They just care about the interest rates paid by the banks and some other items, especially with the governmental garantee behind those deposits !

For investors who invest ‘in’ the bank, in buying, for example, shares or obligations, this is completly another story. We shall not confuse the two.

Mike Sproul December 24, 2009 at 11:43 am

Gerry Flaychy:

You don’t need a public balance sheet to lend gold. You just need gold. But you do need a public balance sheet to issue your own IOU’s and have people place a positive value on them. That is what most bankers do, so they need public balance sheets.

Naturally, the general public doesn’t read balance sheets. They just trust that bank examiners have done it for them. If they don’t trust a bank they invest their money elsewhere.

Gerry Flaychy December 24, 2009 at 7:03 pm

Mike Sproul, to lend gold in a system of independant banks, you need gold, and to issue IOUs payable in gold, you need that people trust you and think that you have enough gold to pay them when they come to change your IOUs. The balance sheet is not necessary. (Where did you take that idea ?) And if the banker use fractional reserve, he is better to not show his balance sheet !

Nowadays, with the governmental guaranty on deposits (modern IOUs), ‘depositors’ don’t bother at all with balance sheets and bank examiners. This is for ‘investors’ who buy shares and obligations, and investors who lend money to non-commercial banks (investment banks).

It is important to not confuse ‘depositors’ with ‘investors’ in shares and obligations; old banking system with modern banking system.

Joe Stoutenburg December 28, 2009 at 10:10 am

I have mostly just been following this now as an interested spectator. I just wanted to welcome Buzungulus back under his new pseudonym of “Beefcake the Mighty”. He reveals himself not only by his particular brand of incivility but also by his laughably consistent misspelling of the word “collateral”.

Troll.

Anyway Gerry, I do agree that depositors pay little attention to bank balance sheets. Government guarantees lull them to sleep on the matter. However, those guarantees only mask the underlying economics. In my opinion, they play an important role in the boom-bust cycle. While banks are publicly displaying their balance sheets (they must by regulation), depositors are rarely, if ever, challenging the values that they claim. It takes external shocks to reveal differences in stated balance sheet values and in values that could actually be obtained on the market.

Keep in mind, too, that market values are highly fluid. As long as relatively few assets are placed for sale, the market value of such assets will remain relatively high. If many of the assets are placed for sale en-mass, their value will drop as expected by elementary supply and demand principles. Conversely, the value of money will increase. This is just what is expressed by deflation.

In the extreme, cash (or money proper, if you prefer – thus allowing for analysis in a commodity money framework) could theoretically become the only good demanded. In this instance, the market values of all other goods would drop to zero. In practice, of course, this extreme would not be reached as money would be exchanged for at least the basic necessities of life.

The relevant question to me is what drives the relative demands expressed for money and goods. And what is the source of demand shocks?

It seems axiomatic that the value of money will tend to adjust to the actual structure of supply and demand. This adjustment is complicated by the dynamic nature of the market. As taught by Mises, there is no one magical eliquibrium level to work toward (we seem to be discussing here, at times, in a sort of evenly rotating economy construct – thinking beyond that conception introduces some insights into the matter, I think). Therefore, market expectations complicate this process. The process is further complicated (to absurd points, at times) by political interventions that often are intended to attempt to oppose the adjustment.

I contend that, absent corrupt political interventions, money will more quickly adjust to values that are in line with actual economic realities and that it will tend to do so with fewer global shocks.

Joe Stoutenburg December 28, 2009 at 10:25 am

Gerry, addressed to Mike:

The balance sheet is not necessary. (Where did you take that idea ?) And if the banker use fractional reserve, he is better to not show his balance sheet !

Let’s illustrate with a hypothetical town in which two banks are incorporated. Bank A has $105M of assets against $100M of liabilities. Moreover, a careful examination of its assets finds a great degree of leverage. Loans held on its books have an average loan to value (LTV) of 99% with many of them actually underwater (meaning less than full recovery in the event of default).

Meanwhile, bank B has $120M of assets against $100M of liabilities. A careful examination of the value of its assets reveals a low level of leverage. The average LTV is only 50%.

Notice that I have not even mentioned the amount of money proper in the bank vaults. That is a relevant question as it should guide the expectations of price inflation and interest rates. Higher cash reserves would demand relatively higher rates while keeping price inflation down or even seeing them drop. Note that this is not deflation in the monetary supply sense (in which the amount of money actually contracts) but is rather the price deflation that Austrians generally consider benign (and I agree).

As a free market advocate, I leave it to the market to determine how much cash reserves to demand. In any case, back to your statement on balance sheets, bank A would surely be reluctant to share its balance sheet if it could get away with it. It is clearly at risk to suffer a deflationary contraction of its money. Bank B, on the other hand, holding a superior balance sheet would be quite eager to publicize its financial condition.

I think that both Mike and I would like to help you focus on the difference between these two banks.

Beefcake the Mighty December 28, 2009 at 11:20 am

Joe Stoutenboob,

Better a troll than a crank. And better to understand what colatteral is than to spell it properly on a blog.

Gerry Flaychy December 28, 2009 at 11:39 am

Joe Stoutenburg,
1- I don’t think that at the epoch where the banks were independant, bankers were publicising their balance sheets and thus show to everybody, especially their competitors, their weakness, unless they had a 100% reserve or very near. As you say, they would had a hard time attracting depositors !
But remark, even without depositors we can make loans: private lenders do that everyday. No need of a public balance sheet to make loans ! Believe me !

Even nowadays, with all the governmental bank supervisors, we cannot know for sure what the real financial situations of the banks are. And it seems that even the bankers don’t know it !

2- The majority of depositors at commercial (not investment) banks don’t care about the balance sheets of the banks. They just care about the interest rates paid by the banks and some other items, especially with the governmental garantee behind those deposits !

For investors who invest ‘in’ the bank, in buying, for example, shares or obligations, this is completly another story. We shall not confuse the two. Samething for the ‘depositors’ in investment banks.

Joe Stoutenburg December 28, 2009 at 1:02 pm

Gerry:

I’ll have to take your word on banking practices during “free banking” periods. That may very well be true that they didn’t publish their balance sheets. But then again, bank runs were a more imminent threat. Depositors didn’t need to understand the details of a bank’s balance sheet. Indeed, most people, if shown financial statements would not have been qualified to construct an informed opinion. But if there were the least rumor that a bank’s notes could not be fully redeemed, they could run to the bank for withdrawal. If the bank’s balance sheet were sound, then there would have been no harm, no foul. All notes would be redeemed, the bank’s reputation defended and (hopefully for the bank) depositors would return again.

Even nowadays, with all the governmental bank supervisors, we cannot know for sure what the real financial situations of the banks are. And it seems that even the bankers don’t know it !

Going back to my statement about dynamic markets, no one can ever know their real financial situation. The value of a bank’s assets is influenced by the demand for the base money in its vaults. An increased demand for base money directly coincides with a decreased demand for other goods, some of which may, in some way, be represented as assets on the bank’s balance sheet. In other words, the bank run, in addition to revealing any potential pre-existing defects in the bank’s balance sheet, actually may worsen it.

Third party guarantees, of course, push potential losses to the guarantor party. Individual depositors will not waste their time examining balance sheets. Nor will they often run on a bank since the FDIC will make good on any losses up to limits far exceeding most deposits. Unfortunately, few people closely consider the political reasons for bank examiners to paper over (pun recognized but not intended) problems in the banks.

I think that we both agree that political interventions exacerbate the situation. Our difference (though not recently voiced – correct me, if I’m wrong) is in whether anything less than 100% base money reserve is fraudulent. I think that some bank reserving practices are fraudulent – certainly many contemporary practices. However, I believe that some bank failures are entrepreneurial error.

Gerry Flaychy December 28, 2009 at 2:42 pm

Joe Stoutenburg, I didn’t exactly said that they didn’t published their balance sheets. I just said that ‘I don’t think that …’. In another words, I doubt that … . I also make a reserve when I wrote ‘unless they had a 100% reserve or very near.’.

Yourself wrote ‘ But then again, bank runs were a more imminent threat.’. Don’t you think that if they publicise that they have only a reserve of 10%, the bank run will happened more faster? Think too of the competitors who were just waiting for a weakness in another bank to put it out of business !

But if one of those bank happen to have a 100% reserve, it would surely be a very good idea for it to publicise it and take a market advantage over the competition.

I also read somewhere, that in the past, the owner of a bank was personally responsible for the debts of the bank. A supplementary reason to not provoke a bank run !

Joe Stoutenburg December 29, 2009 at 8:01 am

Gerry:

Yourself wrote ‘ But then again, bank runs were a more imminent threat.’. Don’t you think that if they publicise that they have only a reserve of 10%, the bank run will happened more faster? Think too of the competitors who were just waiting for a weakness in another bank to put it out of business !

Discerning depositors, given the choice between a bank publishing a strong balance sheet and another refusing to publish a balance, will go with the strong balance sheet.

Gerry Flaychy December 29, 2009 at 11:41 am

To Joe Stoutenburg: It would be a very good market advantage over the competition for the first one (in the system of the past). And probably the second one would have a bank run.

Joe Stoutenburg December 29, 2009 at 11:53 am

Gerry:

Agreed. We’re talking now about competitive market forces. There is no suggestion of fraud in either of our recent statements. In my opinion, the second bank may have committed fraud. Or it may simply have suffered from entrepreneurial error.

It will only be guilty of fraud in the future (assuming that its failure to disclose a balance sheet is to hide its deficiency) only if it is in violation of contractual obligations to reveal its condition. It is certainly true that regulators have a long history of allowing banks to get out of such obligations. Indeed, it is today institutionalized under such actions as the suspension of mark-to-market. But those are quite distinct problems, in my opinion, from the potentially legitimate workings of credit markets.

Do you agree?

Gerry Flaychy December 29, 2009 at 1:18 pm

Joe Stoutenburg, for the moment I am not interested to enter in a discussion about the question of fraud in relation to fractional reserve banking.

T. Ralph Kays December 31, 2009 at 12:45 am

RBD
At the heart of RBD is the assertion that if credit expansion is backed by adequate collateral for the new loans, then the money, or money substitutes, thus created have real value, and therefore will not cause inflation or lead to the business cycle as described in ABCT. The money, or money substitutes, have value because the collateral used to guarantee the loans has value.
Some of the less sophisticated proponents of RBD assert that when the new money, or money substitutes, are created then an equivalent value assett is also created, namely the loan itself, which can be traded at the push of a button. That loans are traded this way is irrelevant however; the critical point is, was a new assett actually created? When a loan is made, say on a home, the homeowner gives up part of their claim to the property in exchange for present money, the loan represents the claim they surrendered to the bank. Instead of a new assett coming into being, what has actually happened is that an existing assett has been divided between two entities. To argue otherwise would amount to asserting the right of homeowners to take out a loan on their home and still be able to use the equity thus encumbered as they please. They could sell it and pocket the money, they could take out as many loans as they wanted against that same equity, there would be no limit to their claim to the collateral. That is clearly not the case.
RBD proponents are offended when it is claimed that the credit expansion that occurs under their system results in “money being created out of thin air”. People who make this claim point to the fact that after the credit expansion occurs the only new assets (please see previous paragraph) are the new money or money substitutes. RBD hinges on the claim that the value of the collateral creates the value of the money, or money substitutes, that come into existence with the credit expansion.
Their are two basic divisions in the discussion of value, there is the objective theory of value and the subjective theory of value. The objective theory of value asserts that objects have intrinsic value apart from the opinions of humans and that it should be possible to measure objectively this ‘value’. There are many different schools of objective value theory, even though not one of them has ever successfully been able to measure ‘value’. The subjective theory of value, the one at the core of Austrian economics, holds that value is determined differently by every individual and that no object has an intrinsic ‘value’ apart from the opinions of individuals.
RBD proponents must explain their assertion that the value of the money, or money substitutes, created under their system derives from the value of the collateral behind the loans, using one of these two basic philosophies of ‘value’. If they choose the objective theory of value they should be able to define the value of the collateral without reference to money, after all, the value of the money comes from the collateral, it is a derivative of the value of the collateral. They should also be able to explain what constant unit of measure is appropriate to ‘value’.
More often RBD proponents follow somewhat of a subjective theory of value, but there is a serious problem with this approach. They use the term ‘value’ extensively, but, when pressed, they admit that what they really mean is the money price of the collateral behind the credit expansion that creates the new money, or money substitutes. So the ‘value’ that establishes the ‘value’ of the money, or money substitutes, is in fact the money price of the collateral. But the money price of the collateral would depend entirely on the ‘value’ of the money, and the ‘value’ (or money price) of the collateral is what establishes the ‘value’ of the money. It is an endless circular argument.
What one is left with is the Austrian explanation of prices and their function in the free market. The ‘value’ of money, or money substitutes, adjust, along with every other item in the market, in order to clear the market. Clearly the abundance of any item in this world will be reflected in its ‘value’, including money.

Joe Stoutenburg December 31, 2009 at 8:30 am

T. Ralph:

Despite all our previous rancor, I must say that was your finest post that I’ve seen in this thread. I’m not sure whether it is worth it for us to continue debating, but in the interest of finding common ground, let me affirm the places where I think you make valid arguments:

When a loan is made, say on a home, the homeowner gives up part of their claim to the property in exchange for present money, the loan represents the claim they surrendered to the bank. Instead of a new assett coming into being, what has actually happened is that an existing assett has been divided between two entities.

Agreed. Prior to the loan, the homeowner had unencumbered possession of the property. It existed entirely outside of the financial system. A new financial asset comes into being from the transaction. As you say, the homeowner splits the asset between entities. A share of his ownership right is transfered to the other entity contingent on his failure to honor the terms of the loan.

In the end, it is the actual real asset that matters. No matter how we arrange the institutions that administer it, money is only useful to purchase the goods that actually exist.

Objective value versus subjective value: I agree that objective value is untenable and that, whatever economic arguments we make (whether in this monetary discussion or otherwise) we must view valuations as the subjective judgment of acting individuals.

Circularity of value argument: I have, in the past, been concerned that there is a feedback mechanism that follows the circularity that you mention. Yet there are complex myriad interdependencies amidst all of human society, and we are typically able to manage them. I have formed the opinion that the problems in money stem mostly from political attempts to circumvent the mechanisms that would clear the markets between money, the goods that back it and the goods for which it can be purchased.

I admit that a full hard money system is a little easier to understand and, perhaps, to administer. Gold, when used as a medium of exchange, is valued subjectively for the purpose of trading it for other goods. If people, for whatever reason (perhaps their demand for money holdings increases due to economic uncertainty), experience an increased desire to hold gold and less desire to exchange for anything else, the money price of goods will drop. In the extreme, if people only wanted gold and desired no other goods, the money price of all goods would drop to zero. [Obviously, this is an unreaslistic situation and is only for explanatory purposes.]

Our system is more complicated. We have base money (essentially pieces of paper printed by the Treasury – I do wish that it were hard money) and we have financial assets stemming from the contingent transfer of ownership of assets as we discussed above. The ‘value’ of the assets acting as collateral is derived, as anything else, from the subjective judgment of market participants. You see a problem in the value of those assets being expressed in terms of money whose value is then determined in terms of the value of the assets – a circular argument.

I would be eager to discuss how the market clears this situation. I would also bring up the role of political intervention in working against market clearing mechanisms. I would be willing to entertain a discussion of when such a system might be unstable [a valid assertion being that it is intrinsically unstable]. But I would rather guage your reaction before embarking on such discussions. I remain cautious given our prior failures to debate civilly.

nicholas April 22, 2011 at 9:38 pm

Ha

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